Adoption of air source heat pumps (ASHPs) has grown around the country in recent years. This is especially true in Minnesota, where energy policies and programs have increased the affordability of ASHPs, and efforts like Minnesota’s Efficient Technology Accelerator (ETA) have worked to facilitate deployment across the state. These policies and efforts have paid off, as seen in the data below comparing sales of ASHPs and standard air conditioning (AC) units.
ASHPs can both heat and cool, so their market share can be considered in the context of heat pumps compared to gas furnaces for heating and compared to traditional central AC for cooling. Heat pumps can heat in conjunction with a variety of other technologies, such as in dual fuel applications where gas furnaces supplement heating in extremely cold temperatures. However, for cooling applications in centrally ducted homes, ASHPs can fully replace a traditional AC unit. For this reason, examining ASHP sales data compared to standard AC units can be a helpful indicator of market trends.
Minnesota-specific data shows a marked increase in ASHP market share over the last six years. Notably, for the first time in 2024, sales of ducted heat pumps, which operate in whole-house forced air settings, exceeded sales of ductless heat pumps, which are commonly called mini-splits and heat or cool rooms or zones in a home. In addition, the ducted heat pump portion of cooling appliance sales in Minnesota increased from just six percent in 2023 to 17 percent in 2025, according to data from HARDI Unitary Market Intelligence powered by CoMetrics. This aligns with ETA’s focus on advancing ducted heat pumps in centrally ducted homes.
Minnesota cooling appliance sales data, 2020–2025
These sales trends make sense given other changes in key market progress indicators that align with ETA’s market transformation strategies. For example, according to a recent market study, customers are increasingly adopting ASHPs because contractors are recommending them, finding a qualified ASHP contractor is becoming easier, customer satisfaction with searching for a contractor improves, and contractors who have received training on ASHPs increasingly drive market adoption.
ASHPs are a key component for achieving Minnesota’s emission reduction goals by offering more efficient heating and cooling and transitioning residential heating from natural gas to increasingly carbon-free electricity. Positive trends in ASHP sales in Minnesota underscore the value and success of policies, programs, and market transformation efforts to move the market toward cleaner and more efficient technologies.
