ASHP State of the Market Report

Aug 5, 2025
Cooling
Electrification
Heating
Residential

Results

  • Seventy percent of contractors surveyed for this report held a favorable opinion of heat pump technology.
  • Heat pump sales have generally increased and are expected to continue doing so.
  • Customer research indicated that 75% of Minnesota-specific homeowners without heat pumps knew little or nothing about the technology. 

Highlights

Objectives

The MN ASHP Collaborative, an initiative under Minnesota’s Efficient Technology Accelerator (ETA), conducted extensive awareness and training surveys with HVAC contractors, homeowners, and distributors to learn more about the current state of the residential heat pump market and track trends over time.

Scope

The Collaborative conducted surveys with 91 mechanical contractors, training surveys with 130 heat pump training attendees, customer surveys with 721 residents who had a heat pump installed in the past three years, a homeowner study including focus groups (N=30) and surveys (N=4,007 across the Midwest with 1,751 from MN) with homeowners who do not currently have heat pumps, and surveys with four heat pump distributors.

Benefits

The extensive market study and surveying found that the market has growing experience with favorable views of heat pumps, but with some remaining skepticism for certain applications. Results also indicated that utilities are key influencers in the heat pump market, and contractors are a crucial leverage point for customer decision-making.

The ASHP State of the Market Report provides a current and comprehensive view of heat pump market actor perceptions in Minnesota. This report illuminates insights from several primary data collection efforts including broad residential HVAC contractor surveys, surveys from program contractor training participants, recent ASHP purchaser customers surveys, highlights from our recent general population homeowner survey, and information from local distributors. These insights serve as a litmus test for current ASHP perceptions, demonstrating how the market has changed over time and gauging effectiveness of the MN ASHP Collaborative activities. 

This report includes valuable data about contractor experience with and opinions on heat pumps, sales insights, challenges and benefits, training needs and resources, customer installation decisions and processes, heat pump impacts, customer satisfaction, and more.